Grayling Blog

Results of the Turkish constitutional referendum

Posted on 15.09.2010 by Seda Yalcin

The referendum on the constitutional amendments, which took place on 12 September 2010, resulted in a victory for the ruling government AKP. The referendum was adopted by 58% yes votes, against 42% no votes. This result certainly strengthens AKP‘s power ahead of the upcoming general elections. Following the referendum, AKP leaders announced that a snap election is not on the AKP’s agenda and that the general elections will take place in June or July 2011, depending on the Turkish Assembly’s final decision. The general election is set to take place in July but the Assembly may decide to bring the elections forward not to cause a low turn-out due to the holiday season.

The results of the referendum can be seen as an early indicator of the upcoming elections: AKP has won votes while the nationalist party, MHP has lost votes significantly. MHP’s votes seem to shift to AKP especially in Black Sea Region where MHP traditionally has a big voter group. CHP was fairly successful in the referendum, however the results show that the leading opposition party lost considerable support in Anatolia. In sum, the referendum results show that AKP will most likely win a majority in the upcoming elections and Erdogan will continue his mandate for another term.

There are various reactions to the results of the referendum. While concerns about AKP’s inevitable rise have grown rapidly following the referendum, there are also positive reactions on the reform package. Probably the only common point of various reactions accross the society is the need for a new constitution.

Although different voices are raising at the political end, the results of the referendum was welcomed by the leading business associations and investors who clearly had concerns that a poor showing in the referendum could spell an unstable coalition government after the upcoming elections. As the election campaigns will kick off soon after the New Year, AKP government is not expected to propose any major economic reforms before the upcoming elections.

Going forward, there are three major discussions on the political agenda of Turkey: 1) upcoming elections;2) a new constitution; 3) presidential system.

If the AKP government succeeds to obtain a majority in the upcoming elections, the party will start working on a new constitution. The idea of a new constitution is generally welcomed by other major parties and the civil society as the current constitution, despite the recent constitutional reform, does not provide an adequate democratic system.

A more controversial discussion is the presidential system. The mandate of the current president, Abdullah Gul will end in 2012. There are some speculations that Prime Minister Erdogan is aiming to become the next president after having changed the current parliamentary system into the presidential system following the upcoming elections. Even though this might be a possibility, such a big reform in the Turkish political system seems like a far-fetched idea in such a short term.